Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.555084 3.477223 4.779185 6.814837 1.004075e+01 1.518807e+01 2.455391e+01
2025-02-16 1.645515 2.571498 4.144636 7.225351 1.371058e+01 2.850561e+01 7.225921e+01
2025-02-23 1.082454 1.872913 3.420070 7.068799 1.700916e+01 4.979868e+01 2.282919e+02
2025-03-02 0.718000 1.339502 2.694696 6.410817 1.912351e+01 7.985402e+01 8.034417e+02
2025-03-09 0.555787 1.123378 2.516403 7.067459 2.786113e+01 2.003237e+02 1.234900e+04
2025-03-16 0.432275 0.933568 2.294148 7.501464 3.926990e+01 5.593490e+02 2.195053e+07
2025-03-23 0.354167 0.815569 2.199824 8.460607 6.212385e+01 2.609305e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.291806 0.709698 2.078106 9.301533 9.754939e+01 2.285998e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 0.233789 0.590615 1.834014 9.198677 1.300234e+02 3.973108e+05 NaN
2025-04-13 0.184806 0.478749 1.546675 8.398893 1.489557e+02 5.550177e+07 NaN
2025-04-20 0.157795 0.424071 1.453286 8.921953 2.327765e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.139488 0.390048 1.426839 10.097746 4.402796e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.121884 0.352639 1.366179 11.021836 8.371474e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.104903 0.311063 1.257024 11.209627 1.395597e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.088825 0.267290 1.108084 10.517156 1.851950e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.074195 0.224571 0.940544 9.155588 1.874530e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.066973 0.207879 0.910231 9.917594 4.342925e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.060134 0.190436 0.864425 10.351125 9.930296e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.055380 0.179816 0.854177 11.573129 4.298711e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.050875 0.168737 0.833687 12.621045 2.883470e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.045580 0.152739 0.769300 12.314025 1.099743e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.040178 0.134934 0.682459 11.058088 1.431419e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.037145 0.126735 0.660412 11.695703 1.833720e+08 NaN NaN